Italia Esce prima che la Grecia in BofA Teoria dei Giochi: La ricerca di taglio

Italy and Ireland have more
incentive to quit the euro than Greece, while Germany may have
limited room to prevent departures from the currency union,
according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Using cost-benefit analysis and game theory, BofA Merrill
Lynch foreign exchange strategists David Woo and Athanasios Vamvakidis concluded in a July 10 report that investors “may be
underpricing the voluntary exit of one or more countries” from
the bloc.

“Our analysis produces a few surprising results that even
readers who may disagree with our conclusion are likely to find
interessante,” the strategists wrote.

Italia, the euro area’s third-largest economy, would enjoy a
higher chance of achieving an orderly exit than others and would
stand to benefit from improvements in competitiveness, economico
growth and balance sheets, hanno detto.

While Germany is the nation deemed able to leave the euro
zone most easily, it has the least incentive of any country to
quit because it would face weaker growth, possibly higher
borrowing costs and a negative hit to its balance sheets, il
strategists said. Austria, Finland and Belgium also have little
reason to quit, hanno detto, while Spain has the weakest case for
leaving among economies most directly affected by the crisis.

The analysis is based on a framework which ranks eleven of
il 17 euro-area nations on criteria such as how orderly their
exit from the bloc would be and how it would affect economic
crescita, interest rates and balance sheets. Ireland and Italy
received an average ranking of 3.5, while Greece was at 5.3 e
Germany had the highest score at 8.5. The lower the number, il
more there would be to gain from leaving.

Woo e Vamvakidis impiegano teoria dei giochi per suggerire che, mentre
Germania potrebbe "corrompere" l'Italia a rimanere nel blocco ed evitare
le conseguenze derivanti da una uscita, la sua capacità di farlo è limitato.
Ecco perché l'Italia ha più ragioni di Grecia per lasciare così
qualsiasi indennizzo potrebbe diventare troppo costoso per la Germania e
Gli italiani potrebbero essere ancora più riluttanti che i greci ad accettare
le condizioni per il soggiorno.

"Se la nostra inferenza si rivela corretta, questo potrebbe avere
implicazioni negative per i mercati nei mesi a venire,"Essi

* * *

La scarsità d'acqua significa Paesi che l'hanno godere di una
vantaggio commerciale rispetto a quelli che non lo fanno. Questa è la conclusione di
University of Virginia professor Peter Debaere in carta
pubblicato dal Centre for Economic Policy Research.

“Water systematically affects countries’ trade patterns in
a manner consistent with international trade theory,"Ha detto

Those with less try to protect their scarce resources by
exporting fewer water-intensive goods. That means those with a
lot of it enjoy a comparative advantage.

Because water is necessary for life, Debaere found prices
are often distorted and regulated by governments. Ancora, essa
contributes less to exports than factors such as labor, così
climate change and changing precipitation patterns may only
cause moderate disturbances to future trade, ha detto.

* * *

Millions of jobs are being lost in the U.S. ed Europa
because countries from China to Switzerland are manipulating
their exchange rates, according to Joseph Gagnon, an economist
the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

By restraining their currencies, governments are distorting
flussi di capitale di circa $1.5 trilioni di un anno, Gagnon ha stimato in
uno studio questo mese. Che drena la domanda da parte delle economie che consentono
tassi di cambio fluttuano liberamente.

"In altre parole,, altri milioni di americani sarebbero impiegati
se altri paesi non manipolano le loro valute e
invece una crescita sostenibile attraverso una maggiore domestico
domanda,"Ha detto Gagnon, un ex economista della Federal Reserve.

Gagnon identifica Giappone, Svizzera, Israele, Singapore,
Cina e Russia come tra i paesi massaggio valuta
Valori. Per forzare un cambiamento, ha suggerito affrontano tali paesi
tasse sui loro acquisti di U.S. e attività finanziarie dell'area dell'euro.

* * *

Anche se le forze come l'Europa (SXXP) crisi del debito e globale
allentamento monetario sembra influenzare i valori di valuta, Marc Chandler
di Brown Brothers Harriman Co. suggerisce U.S. mercati azionari può
ancora dominare.

Oltre 30 giorni, returns on the euro follow those of the
Standard Poor 500 Indice (SPX) 59 percent of the time, Chandler,
global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers in New York,
ha detto in un luglio 10 segnalare.

“The general take away is that despite a number of other
drivers and influences, the correlation between most of the
currencies we looked at and the SP 500 has increased in the
recent period,"Ha detto.

Chandler links the closer correlation to investors shifting
between favoring risk and avoiding it. That explains why the
Australian dollar is among the most correlated currencies with
the SP 500 Indice. Its 30-day correlation suggests it tracks
U.S. stocks about 90 percent of the time.

“It’s really risk-off, risk-on with the SP a proxy of
rischio,” said Chandler.

* * *

Two-thirds of cash-strapped euro area governments are
falling behind their own projections for cutting budget deficits
in 2012, according to JPMorgan Chase Co.

In segno di crisi del debito della regione può continuare a covare sotto la cenere,
Di JPMorgan Malcolm Barr e Raphael Brun-Aguerre in luglio 6
rapporto cita scetticismo che l'Italia, Spagna, Irlanda, Portogallo e
Spagna può raggiungere i loro obiettivi, e prevedere "target diffusa
overshoot ".

Come gruppo, i governi prevedono il loro budget
deficit cadranno in media 2.7 per cento del prodotto interno lordo
prodotto quest'anno dal 2011.

I dati suggeriscono l'Italia cadrà a breve del suo obiettivo, anche come
la sua posizione di bilancio migliora di quest'anno, gli economisti hanno detto.
Deficit primario della Grecia si restringe mentre il suo divario globale
non sarà, e Irlanda consegnerà meno quest'anno rispetto al 2011,
hanno detto. Portogallo e Spagna sono in esecuzione più ampi squilibri.

* * *

Il denaro conta quando si tratta di garantire il successo in qualche
Sport olimpico.

Uno studio condotto da Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) (GS) gli economisti hanno trovato un
increase in gross domestic product per capita tends to boost a
country’s chances of winning Olympic medals in cycling, judo,
rowing and swimming. Weaker income effects apply to archery,
canoa, sailing and Taekwondo, the economists said in a report
published July 11.

The London Olympics begins July 27 e il U.K. may benefit
from playing host because doing so tends to have a positive
effect on local athletes competing in cycling, gymnastics,
rowing, vela, swimming and wrestling. The hosts would be
expected to see 1.5 a 3 more medals in each of these sports,
gli economisti hanno detto.

Per contattare il reporter su questa storia:
Simon Kennedy in London at
[email protected]

Per contattare l'editore responsabile di questa storia:
Craig Stirling at [email protected]

Può la rivoluzione digitale salvataggio Grecia dalla crisi economica?

Nota del redattore: Andrew Keen is a British-American entrepreneur and professional skeptic. He is the author of The Cult of the Amateur,” eDigital Vertigo. This is the latest in a series of commentaries for CNN looking at how internet trends are influencing social culture.

Atene (CNN)Most people travel to Greece to look at antiquities. But I’ve spent the last few days in Athens sightseeing the country’s digital future. And what I’ve seen is surprisingly encouraging.

The future isn’t hard to excavate in Greece. Anzi, immediately upon arrival at Athens airport, travelers are confronted by spread of slick advertisements for a global bank.

The future is full of opportunity. Be part of the future,” one of these advertisements advises.

Age will be no barrier to ambition,” another promises.

Andrew Keen

Even the smallest business will be multinational,” a third guarantees.

Ma oggi, in a Greece wracked by the most serious economic crisis for at least a century, the truth about the country’s economic future is mostly the opposite of these advertisements.

In Greece today, the future is mostly characterized by fear rather than opportunity. The problem is that this small country doesn’t appear to be part of anyone’sfuture.Increasingly peripheral, even to the euro crisis, Greece is in danger of drifting back into its dark 20th century past: back to the self-destructive politics of anti-capitalist violence and ethnic hatred; back perhaps to the drachma, to economic autarky and perhaps even to a financial apocalypse equivalent to the Great Depression.

Euro crisi: In-depth

In Grecia, il “smallest businessesin an economy still dependent mostly on tourism, are about as multinational as the crumbling remains of the Acropolis. In this classic Southern European gerontocracy in which at least 50% of young people are unemployed, age actually mostly represents an impenetrable barrier to ambition.

Eppure, amidst all the despair, there is a rebirth going on in Greece. It’s a digital renaissance and it’s being pioneered by a new generation of talented young Internet entrepreneurs who are trying to reinvent not only the Greek economy and society, but also Greece’s role in today’s global economy.

The irony of this nascent Greek digital renaissance is that it probably wouldn’t have happened without the economic crisis. In pre-crisis Greece, most Greeks grew up wanting to be public servants. But now that the old clientist state cannot offer lifetime sinecures for university graduates, young Greeks coming out of university now have little else to do except invest their labor in start-ups.

There’s no other option,” Tasos Frantzolas, the founder of Soundsnap who splits his time between New York and Athens, told me about this entrepreneurial renaissance in Greece. “People of my generation recognize this.

John Doxaras, the CEO of who studied physics at Cambridge University and who now divides his time between Athens and San Francisco, agrees with Frantzolas. Given the crisis, Doxarasa young man who is already on his third start-upbelieve that young Greeks havenothing to lose” e sono “willing to take a risk.

C'è un “big opportunity” in Grecia, Doxaras told me becausegiven the relative insignificance of the local marketstart-ups have to be global, both in their organization and their market., per esempio, which offers big brands tools for mobile marketing, has its biggest client in Kuwait and, della sua 22 fulltime staff, four are in the U.S., six in Europe and 12 ad Atene.

In the Greek digital economy, even the smallest business have to be multinational.

Europe’s leaders are spinning plates

Pavlos: Greek people voting to survive

Greek jobless rate at 22 per cento

Christina Plakopita concurs with Doxaras. Plakopita, a 28-year-old woman who has degrees in economics and real-estate development from London and Columbia universities, came back from the US to Greece to start-up and run Netrobe, an iPhone app designed as a virtual closet for young fashionistas which already has 40,000 users.

People said I was “pazzo” to come back to Greece, Plakopita, who returned to Athens to live with her parents, mi ha detto. “But it was a great decision,” ha spiegato, because digital isboomingin Greece and it’s an ideal market tothink global and act local.

Like Doxaras and Frantzolas, Plakopita’s confidence in the digital Greek rebirth is rooted in the wealth of human talent in Greece. I think they are correct. Having spent the last few days in the invigorating company of many Greek start-up entrepreneurs, I have been struck with their vitality, intelligence and ambition.

From early-stage collaborative workspaces like CoLab e 123p, to entrepreneurs from promising local start-ups like Taxibeat, Radiojar, Parking Defenders, Dailysecret, Joolmaworks, e Cookisto, it is self-evident that there is something very promising brewing in this nascent Greek digital economy.

So what could go wrong with this budding digital Greek renaissance?

The biggest problem, naturalmente, remains the oppressively bureaucratic Greek state that, in spite of the crisis, continues to be a major obstacle to entrepreneurial innovation. “Failure in Greece in penalized,” John Doxaras told me about a system in which entrepreneurs can end up in jail if they bankrupt their companies. And every Greek start-up entrepreneur I met complained bitterly about arcane and ever-changing bureaucratic regulations that make setting up and running a company frustratingly complex and time-consuming.

Greeks pull money out of country’s banks

As Stavros Messinis, the co-founder of CoLab told me, Greece remains atough environmentfor entrepreneurs. What’s missing, Messinis explained, is a both a legal and social acceptance of the idea of failure. There’s noculture of forgivenessfor business failure in Greece, Messinis explained. And thus most Greeks remains terrified of failing, even though failure is the unavoidable norm of even the most successful start-up ecosystem.

Then there’s the broader cultural challenge of rewiring Greek minds for the digital age. As CEO Doxaras explained, most Greekseven its younger generationdon’t “ottenere” the idea that Greece, if it wants to compete in the 21st century global economy, has any other option but to become a start-up nation like Israel.

Oddly enough, a possible Greek exit from the euro is seen by many entrepreneurs as a much a blessing in disguise for their businesses as a catastrophe. “If you sell abroad you will get rich overnight,” Fotis Evagelou, the CTO of Joolmaworks, mi ha detto. While CoLab co-founder Stavros Messinis acknowledges that any start-up with clients overseas would benefit from the inevitable devaluation of the local currency that a Greek exit from the euro would trigger.

But does Greek economic failure really equal entrepreneurial success?

No, it’s not that simple. Messinis cautions that the return of the drachma would besuperbly negativefor entrepreneurs in the short-term, with exchange controls, massive layoffs, riots and empty supermarket shelves. John Doxaras even warns that a euro exit might result in significant power cuts thereby cutting off local digital companies from their lifebloodaccess to the global network.

Yet in spite of the danger of a complete economic meltdown, the future remains full of opportunity for Greece’s young digital entrepreneurs. It won’t be easy, naturalmente. But a country best known for its antiquities might turn out to be a key hub for radical innovation in our digital economy.

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