Euro manages to extend recent rally against dollar and yen even though the Greek situation remains unresolved. Greek officials sounded optimistic as a statement from Prime Minister Papademos said that political leaders have “agreed on all the points of the program with the exception of one which requires further elaboration and discussion.” It’s believed that pension reform is that stumbling block. Finance Minister Venizelos will travel to Brussels to meet with Eurozone finance ministers today. Venizelos is hopeful that “there is agreement on all issues” with political leaders “bar one”. Prime Minister Papademos will stay in Athens striving to complete the austerity deal before EU finance minsters meeting. Before that, focus will first turn to ECB and BoE meetings.
Although Greece’s PSI and its access to the new tranche of bailout fund dragged on, market sentiment appeared to have improved since the last ECB meeting. Moreover, reaction to the 3-year LTRO was positive while economic data over the past few weeks showed improvement. These should allow the ECB to keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and leave the unconventional monetary measures unchanged.
In the UK, the BoE is expected to expand its asset purchases by 50B pound in February. The country’s economy has remained subdued and the stubbornly high inflation has started to moderate. Moreover, the previous asset purchase program is about to expire. The February meeting is probably the best timing to extend the amount further.
Employment data from New Zealand was mixed. Q4 employment growth unexpectedly slowed to 0.1% qoq but unemployment rate also dropped to 6.3%. China PPI slowed as expected to 0.7% yoy in January. However, CPI jumped back to 4.5% yoy. The data might reinforce officials’ concern that inflation is not going away yet and could complicate the plan to add stimulus to revive growth, lowering the possibility of policy loosening. Other data released saw Japan household confidence improved to 40 in January. Looking ahead, UK production, trade balance, US jobless claims, wholesale inventories and Canada new housing price index will be featured later today.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.72; (P) 102.08; (R1) 102.51; More
EUR/JPY’s rally resumed after brief consolidations and reaches as high as 102.77 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 97.03 is expected to continue towards 100% projection of 97.03 to 102.20 from 99.24 at 104.41. On the downside, below 101.65 minor support will turn bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 99.24 support holds.
In the bigger picture, fall from 123.31 is part of the down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 and should target 100% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 89.52. At this point, we’d anticipate strong support there to bring at least a rebound attempt, as it’s close to 88.96 all time low as well as100% projection of 123.31 to 100.74 from 111.57 at 89.00. Though, a break of 111.57 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we’ll continue to stay bearish in the cross even in case of rebound.
Unemployment Rate Q4
Employment Change Q/Q Q4
Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Jan
PPI Y/Y Jan
CPI Y/Y Jan
Household Confidence Jan
SECO Consumer Confidence Jan
Industrial Production M/M Dec
Industrial Production Y/Y Dec
Manufacturing Production M/M Dec
Manufacturing Production Y/Y Dec
Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Dec
BoE Rate Decision
BOE Asset Purchase Target Feb
ECB Rate Decision
ECB Press Conference
New Housing Price Index M/M Dec
Initial Jobless Claims
Wholesale Inventories Dec
NIESR GDP Estimate Jan
Natural Gas Storage